Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

International audienceAn important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte-Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we therefore propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decision-maker's attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process

Approche mathématique de l'impact des sites contaminés sur les eaux souterraines dans un contexte d'analyse de risque

The primary objectives of this thesis are, firstly, to develop analytical solutions for estimating the impact of contaminated sites (in particular landfills, and to a lesser extent accidentally contaminated soils) on groundwater, and secondly to evaluate methods for taking into account the uncertainty relative to the different relevant parameters. These developments are performed with particular reference to a risk analysis framework. One of the distinctive features of such a framework is the incomplete and uncertain nature of the information that is generally available in practice. This has a direct influence on the choice of tools and approaches. It is proposed, in the introductory chapter, to define risk as the likelihood that a damage may occur, thus avoiding the more frequently used term probability. The latter refers to a strictly statistical description of the uncertainty, and assumes a degree of knowledge with respect to the various relevant parameters that is not necessarily available in practice. A presentation of several risk analysis models underlines their respective areas of application. Chapter 2 presents analytical solutions for estimating the impact of contaminated sites on groundwater, several of which are original. The mathematical development of the original solutions is presented in detail in the appendix. The succession of proposed solutions goes from the simpler to the more complex, starting with solutions for a one-layer domain and one-, two- and three-dimensional contaminant migration, and then passing to solutions for a multi-layer domain. These solutions are presented in terms of dimensionless variables that allow the equations to be written in a compact fashion, and independently of any system of units. The dimensionless variables serve to construct type curves that provide a visual analysis of solution behaviour with respect to variations of input parameter values. The proposed original solutions are of particular interest for estimating the potential impact of waste disposal sites, as they take into account the effect of the diffusive-dispersive flux on the impact on groundwater. This component of the mass flux is generally either omitted by existing risk analysis tools, or else it is not truly coupled with the mass balance in the groundwater (via the boundary conditions). The proposed solutions are applied to several practical examples. The example involving the original solution developed for estimating the impact of a stabilized waste-disposal site, illustrates the solution's usefulness as an aid for site conception and design. The example also shows how, by providing a picture of the site's global performance with respect to its potential impact, the model can bring the designer to question some of his choices. Another example helps to clarify the concept of "equivalence" between different barrier systems. An original solution is also proposed for the problem of early contaminant detection using inorganic trace elements. A comparison with another approach proposed in the literature illustrates the limits of the latter. Chapter 3 addresses the question of how to take imperfection of knowledge into account in the calculations. Two methods for accounting for uncertainty with respect to input parameter values are described and compared. The first method is the Monte Carlo method, which relates to a statistical and probabilistic framework. The second method is based on the theory of possibilities and on so-called fuzzy calculus. The representation of the main model parameters (hydraulic conductivity, porosity, etc.) using fuzzy numbers rather than probability distributions, is often more consistent with the basic nature of the information that is available in practice. The comparison between the two methods, underlines the conservative character of the fuzzy approach. This is related to the fact that the calculation based on fuzzy numbers considers all possible combinations of fuzzy input parameter values, but does not transmit (through multiplication) the degrees of unlikelihood of the different values. In the Monte Carlo calculation, on the other hand, a scenario that combines low-probability values of the input parameters, has all the less chance of being randomly selected. Nevertheless, when the mere possibility that an unfavourable scenario may occur becomes an element of decision, the fuzzy approach may seem preferable. This situation can appear in an environmental context, where human health is often at stake. The examples presented herein contribute to introducing an "impact framework" to the management of contaminated sites. Such a framework tends to define the acceptability of choices with respect to the management of these sites, on the basis of a comparison between emitted pollutant fluxes and fluxes considered acceptable for the local environment. They also underline the usefulness of having a certain degree of freedom with respect to the choice of the conceptual model underlying the mathematical model, in order to provide reasonable appropriateness between the calculation tool and the various situations that might appear in practice. Existing risk analysis models are often difficult to apply to specific sites, due to the rigidity of their conceptual models. In some cases, these models are better described as tools for ranking chemical substances as a function of their contamination potential. Some of the original analytical solutions proposed herein can be readily incorporated into the "vector" module of a risk analysis tool

Data Reconciliation under Fuzzy Constraints in Material Flow Analysis

Data reconciliation consists in modifying noisy or unreliable data in order to satisfy a mathematical model (herein a material flow network). The conventional approach relies on least squares minimization. Here we show that the setting of fuzzy sets provides a generalized approach that is more flexible and less dependent on oftentimes debatable probabilistic justifications. Moreover the proposed setting also encompasses constraint-based formulations using intervals

Fonction étanchéité et gestion des risques en contexte minier. IMPERMEABILITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF MINING ACTIVITIES

International audienceThe extractive industry generates waste that should be managed in such a way as to avoid generating risks for the environment and human health. Impermeability is an essential property for the efficient management of mining waste, especially for limiting the detrimental leakage to groundwater or surface water from tailings impoundments and other mining waste disposal sites, or to prevent the formation of acid mine drainage in the case of Sulfide-rich wastes. This paper presents a review of European and French legislation relative to mining waste management, of candidate materials for limiting infiltration and suggests recommendations with particular reference to the context of French Guyana.L'activité extractive génère des déchets qui doivent être gérés de manière à prévenir les risques pour l'environnement et la santé humaine. La fonction étanchéité est essentielle pour une bonne gestion des déchets miniers, notamment pour éviter que les parcs à résidus de traitement et autres installations de stockage de déchets ne génèrent des débits de fuite susceptibles de détériorer la qualité des eaux souterraines ou de surface, ou encore pour prévenir la formation de drainage minier acide dans le cas de déchets riches en sulfures. Cet article fait un point sur la réglementation européenne et française en matière de gestion des déchets de l'industrie extractive, passe en revue certains matériaux pouvant remplir cette fonction étanchéité et propose quelques recommandations avec une référence particulière au contexte minier guyanais

CO2 geological storage safety assessment: methodological developments

International audienceCarbon dioxide capture and geological storage is seen as a promising technology to mitigate greenhouse gas atmospheric emissions. Its wide-scale implementation necessitates demonstrating its safety for humans and the environment. We have developed a generic approach to provide references for safety assessment of CO2 storage. It is composed of a series of simple tools for identifying risk scenarios, modelling risk events and exposure. It incorporates a rigorous management of uncertainty, distinguishing between variability and knowledge incompleteness. We applied this approach on a case study in the Paris Basin. This demonstrates how it delivers conditions mixing qualitative and quantitative elements for guaranteeing safety. This approach is flexible; it can be used for various sites and with various amounts of data. It can be carried out in a time-efficient manner at various stages of a project. In particular, it provides an operator or an authority with safety indicators in an early phase or for reviewing a risk assessment. Though not a complete risk assessment workflow, it thus partly compensates for the current lack of commonly acknowledged assessment methods or safety standards for CO2 geological storage

Material flow analysis applied to rare earth elements in Europe

International audienceThis paper explores flows and stocks, at the scale of the European Union, of certain rare earth elements (REEs; Pr, Nd, Eu, Tb, Dy and Y) which are associated with products that are important for the decarbonisation of the energy sector and that also have strong recycling potential. Material flow analyses were performed considering the various steps along the value chain (separation of rare earth oxides, manufacture of products, etc.) and including the lithosphere as a potential stock (potential geological resources). Results provide estimates of flows of rare earths into use, in-use stocks and waste streams. Flows into use of, e.g., Tb in fluorescent lamp phosphors, Nd and Dy in permanent magnets and Nd in battery applications were estimated, for selected reference year 2010, as 35, 1230, 230 and 120 tons respectively. The proposed Sankey diagrams illustrate the strong imbalance of flows of permanent magnet REEs along the value chain, with Europe relying largely on the import of finished products (magnets and applications). It is estimated that around 2020, the amounts of Tb in fluorescent lamps and Nd in permanent magnets recycled each year in Europe, could be on the order of 10 tons for Tb and between 170 and 230 tons for Nd

Material flow analysis for identifying rare earth element recycling potentials in the EU-27

International audienceRare earth elements (REEs) are essential for high-techology industrial sectors. This paper presents research on material flow analysis (MFA) applied to REEs in the EU-27. Innovative aspects of this research pertain to (i) considering potential lithospheric stocks of REEs in the EU and (ii) accounting for incomplete and imprecise information in MFA data reconciliation. Results obtained to-date provides a history of EU-27 raw rare earth imports and exports and a methodology for data reconciliation which constitutes an alternative to the classical least-squares method

Approche méthodologique de la modélisation du transport des HAP dans les sols et les eaux

Afin de préciser le cadre d'utilisation de codes de transport de polluants dans les sols et les eaux, un programme d'intercomparaison de méthodes et de codes a été mis en oeuvre avec la collaboration de huit équipes appartenant à des instituts de recherche ou des bureaux d'études. Parmi les types de polluants étudiés, les hydrocarbures aromatiques polycycliques (HAP) ont fait l'objet de simulations par deux groupes de travail. Le premier groupe, composé de cinq équipes, s'est intéressé à leur comportement en phase dissoute à partir d'un cas réel de pollution. Disposant des mêmes données d'étude, chaque équipe avait pour mission de concevoir un modèle conceptuel (description géologique, définition de la source, paramètres d'écoulement et de transport) et de simuler la pollution de la nappe avec le code de son choix. Les résultats obtenus montrent des différences significatives qui trouvent leur explication dans les paramètres des modèles conceptuels adoptés plus que dans les simulateurs choisis. Cet exercice a confirmé l'importance des paramètres suivants qui sont souvent incertains mais justifieraient d'être mieux appréciés lors de diagnostics : paramètres hydrodynamiques (détermination du champ de vitesse), coefficient de partition (pour chaque horizon géologique), temps de demi-vie du ou des polluants, extension de la source de pollution. Le second groupe a étudié les écoulements en phase libre (phase liquide non aqueuse) sur un cas théorique inspiré d'un cas réel de déversement massif de naphtalène. La modélisation a été conduite par trois équipes avec trois codes polyphasiques différents (SIMUSCOPP, TOUGH/T2VOC, UTCHEM). Cet exercice comprend le suivi du déversement et de la migration du naphtalène sous formes liquide et dissoute sur une distance de 300 m et une durée de 10 ans. Le naphtalène révèle un comportement d'hydrocarbure " lourd " avec une phase huile (partiellement miscible) qui tend à descendre à travers la nappe. Ce comportement a été reproduit par chacune des équipes, de manière plus ou moins complète en fonction des possibilités de modélisation offertes par les codes. Les résultats obtenus permettent de vérifier la cohérence des différentes approches polyphasiques entre elles. Bien que plus complexe (paramètres plus nombreux, difficulté numérique accrue), l'approche polyphasique se justifie pour mieux comprendre et déterminer la répartition spatiale de HAP en profondeur dans une nappe

Effects of thermal and chemical enhancements on the recovery of heavy chlorinated compounds in saturated porous media: Treatability tests and modeling

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